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Brown down in polls but challenge unlikely

Posted: Tuesday, June 24, 2008, 16:23 (BST)
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A year after succeeding Tony Blair as prime minister, Gordon Brown's poll ratings have sunk and talk of a challenge to his leadership is rife.

The man who waited in the wings as Chancellor for more than a decade could be forgiven for wondering whether the best things really do come to those who wait.

The economy has taken a downturn, the government has been accused of making errors and Brown's austere leadership style has been criticised. Government officials and Labour MPs now whisper conspiratorially about a challenge to his leadership.

But such a move is widely seen as unlikely.

"People will talk about a leadership challenge but they won't do it," said Robert Worcester, the founder of polling group MORI and a leading commentator on British politics.

"If the pressure became so heavy, it's conceivable (there would be a leadership challenge) but only barely conceivable, and the odds would be 50-1 against."

Political analysts say there are no serious candidates in the cabinet or party. A parliamentary election is not due until May 2010, so there is time for opinion poll ratings to improve, especially if the economy shows a hint of recovery.

Changing prime minister again after little more than a year could look like desperation.

"In order for a challenge you need a challenger and there isn't an obvious one," said Peter Kellner, the head of international opinion research group YouGov.

"I don't think there's an appetite in the party for a battle over this, and I can't think of a single member of the cabinet who would provoke it."

Several people are mentioned as future Labour leaders, including foreign secretary David Miliband and schools minister Ed Balls. But none is seen as having the national profile, broad support or desire to take on what could be a poisoned chalice.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT ELECTION



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