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Economy slows but consumers resilient

Manufacturers and housebuilders delivered further evidence on Thursday of a sharp economic downturn, although official figures suggested consumers are showing surprising resilience.

Posted: Friday, April 25, 2008, 7:36 (BST)
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Manufacturers and housebuilders delivered further evidence on Thursday of a sharp economic downturn, although official figures suggested consumers are showing surprising resilience.

The Office for National Statistics said retail sales volumes dipped 0.4 percent in March, broadly as expected, but upward revisions to back months lifted the annual rate to a pacey 4.6 percent.

The three-month on three-month growth rate, seen as a better gauge of the underlying trend, rose to 2 percent - the highest rate since July 2006.

The official retail sales data has puzzled many economists who expect tighter credit conditions, rising household bills and falling house prices to crimp consumer spending this year.

"Today's numbers confirm a picture of robust strength on the High Street in the first quarter of this year which is totally at odds with anecdotal evidence from companies, retail surveys and consumer confidence measures," said David Page at Investec.

"We are slightly at a loss to explain the strength in the official sales numbers."

Some analysts suggested the strength of retail sales over the quarter could mean Friday's first estimate of gross domestic product growth, forecast to slow to 2.6 percent year-on-year from 2.8 percent at the end of last year, surprises to the upside.

However, a survey of manufacturers by the Confederation of British Industry painted a far more gloomy picture. Order books in April were in their worst shape since October 2006, having deteriorated on the month at the sharpest rate on record.



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