India's government faces a tight vote of confidence in parliament on Tuesday that will decide the fate of a civilian nuclear cooperation deal with the United States and could trigger a snap election.
The vote pits the Congress-led coalition that negotiated the deal against its former communist allies and opposition parties led by the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The result is far too close to call, obscured by a flurry of last-minute horse-trading as both sides try to attract the support of smaller, regional or caste-based parties.
Investors are expecting a narrow win for the government, although many remain on the sidelines. Bookmakers also favour the government.
That feeling has helped shares recover after a string of losses, the main share index rising by more than 10 percent in the last three sessions and a further 1.3 percent at 10:50 a.m. (6:20 a.m. British time) on Tuesday.
If the government falls there will probably be an election this year. It is also likely to lead to the scrapping of the civilian nuclear agreement and throw economic policy into limbo just as inflation rises to a 13-year-high.
Likely vote tallies compiled by some of the country's main newspapers and TV channels put the government between two and four votes ahead, but listed several MPs as undecided.
The Times of India said the vote resembled the end of a deadheat 20-over cricket match.
"We are now in the final over, and it still looks like it could be anybody's game," it said.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh moved the confidence motion with a brief address on Monday, and will make a full defence of the deal and his government's record before the vote.
He smiled and gave a thumbs up and "V" for victory sign for the second day in a row as he entered parliament on Tuesday.
