WASHINGTON - The number of Iraqis driven from their homes by war and sectarian violence could be far larger than official estimates of the country's deepening humanitarian crisis, some experts say.
The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees and the Iraqi Red Crescent estimate that more than 4.2 million Iraqis have been displaced from their homes within the country or have crossed Iraq's borders to become refugees.
The number includes about 2 million displaced before the 2003 U.S.-led invasion by Saddam Hussein's campaigns against opponents including Shi'ites and Kurds.
But some analysts and organizations that focus on Iraq believe tens of thousands more Iraqis made homeless by violence have avoided registering with host governments abroad or the government in Iraq for fear that their safety and freedom of movement could be jeopardized.
That would suggest significantly larger humanitarian and security problems for Iraq and its neighbors, particularly Syria and Jordan, in what is already the worst crisis of its kind in the Middle East since 1948.
Other experts say some estimates could be inflated or have failed to reflect a migration of Iraqis refugees from Jordan to Syria and Lebanon.
"There's really no count because refugees outside Iraq are treated as illegal immigrants and many people think their best course of action is to stay in hiding," said Bill Frelick, refugee policy director for Human Rights Watch.
"Inside the country, where the access of humanitarians to provide assistance is so poor because of security, we're really relying on local actors who could deflate or inflate numbers for reasons from political goals or to pocket assistance."
Still others worry that a new flood of refugees could be in store if sectarian violence inside Iraq escalates after U.S. President George W. Bush's surge strategy to stabilize Baghdad comes to an end next year.
