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Labour loyalists may save Brown in crunch vote

Scottish pensioner Frances O'Grady will vote for Labour in an election next week to choose a new MP - although she is not sure why.

Posted: Friday, July 18, 2008, 10:02 (BST)
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Scottish pensioner Frances O'Grady will vote for Labour in an election next week to choose a new MP - although she is not sure why.

"I always vote Labour. It's loyalty I suppose. I would never do any different," said O'Grady, 62, out shopping in one of the most depressed areas of Glasgow.

Diehard Labour supporters like O'Grady look set to help Labour hang on to the Glasgow East constituency on July 24, albeit with a much reduced majority, buying embattled Prime Minister Gordon Brown some breathing space after a string of losses sparked talk of a leadership coup.

With the Conservative Party on track to oust Labour in the next parliamentary election, due by May 2010, defeat in Glasgow East could be the final straw for those in Labour who believe Brown must go.

"If Labour wins, however small the majority and however low the turnout, that is good news for Gordon Brown because a win is a win," said Peter Kellner, president of pollsters YouGov.

The Conservatives routed Labour in elections earlier this year for two English parliamentary seats, local English and Welsh councils and the post of London mayor.

But analysts believe core Labour voters - families who have voted Labour through generations - will help Brown retain Glasgow East and his job, for the time being.

Labour insiders and analysts say there is no sign that any credible contender is ready to challenge Brown.

"I'd have thought there's a good chance the by-election will be good enough for Gordon Brown to continue over the summer," said Bill Miller, politics professor at Glasgow University.

"In the current state of fear in the Labour Party, if they hold the seat they would be happy," he said.



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