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Thai parties start coalition deal-making

Posted: Monday, December 24, 2007, 15:49 (GMT)
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S&P WARNING

There was no immediate market reaction as Thailand is on a holiday for the election. The stock and currency markets reopen on Tuesday, Christmas Day.

But reflecting fears of another coup, ratings agency Standard & Poor's said any more military meddling would be likely to lead to a credit downgrade, making it harder for Thailand to borrow money on international markets.

"If such divisions result in another unconstitutional replacement of the government, or social unrest, the political and economic consequences will be much more negative than experienced so far," S&P said.

Underlying the political horse-trading is the fear of trouble on the streets of the capital, where prior to the coup the middle classes staged months of anti-Thaksin protests, paralysing government and hitting consumer confidence.

Despite his unpopularity in the capital after four fractious years as governor there, Samak shrugged off fears that protests would give the army cover to step in again after the obvious failure of the 2006 coup to consign Thaksin to the history books.

"It is a victory for this country," Samak said of the vote, adding that new army chief Anupong Paochinda was a "good guy" committed to keeping out of politics.

The military's preferred outcome is a government led by the Democrats, who won 165 seats according to a full count, even though most analysts say such a weak five-party coalition would be unlikely to last beyond a year.

Financial markets hope the return of an elected administration will signal the end of a period of disappointing economic growth, likely to fall from 5.1 percent in 2006 towards 4 percent this year, the lowest rate in six years.

"As a positive, you could argue that the election did go ahead, but I don't know what the military is going to do, and I don't pretend to know what they are going to do," said David Cohen of Action Economics in Singapore.

"Maybe that will make foreign investors a little bit wary."



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