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Truce dead as Sri Lanka war seen to escalate

Sri Lanka's 25-year civil war with Tamil Tiger rebels will likely escalate into the bloodiest period of fighting between the foes the island has seen after the government scrapped a tattered truce, experts say.

Posted: Thursday, January 3, 2008, 8:25 (GMT)
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The Tigers had already been outlawed as a terrorist group by a host of nations, including the United States, Britain and the European Union, after a series of attacks and assassinations.

SRI LANKA PUT BACK A DECADE

"What this does is really puts Sri Lanka back 10 years," said a senior diplomat in Colombo. "It's very negative in terms of the outlook."

"In one fell swoop, Rajapaksa has moved Sri Lanka back to 1997, the diplomat added, referring to a period when the army launched a major offensive and the rebels mounted a series of deadly attacks that reached the capital.

Norway has said a Nordic mission monitoring the ceasefire would now "most likely" be withdrawn, removing a final deterrent to human rights violations that have mushroomed and isolated both sides from the international community.

"The peace process has long been gone, but it does not mean that Sri Lanka can sign away its responsibilities on human rights and helping its civilians through what's going to be a very bloody couple of years," the senior diplomat said.

Buoyed by battlefield successes in the east, Rajapaksa has vowed to defeat the rebels militarily and nixing the ceasefire will appease hardliners on whom he depends to secure a parliamentary majority.

But many observers say there is no clear winner on the horizon and fear the war could grind on for years.

"Undoubtedly they (the military) have made some gains. But that should not blind them to another reality," Athas cautioned. "We do see explosions taking place in the city of Colombo and places like that."

"Every time something happens, we wake up to the fact that they (the Tigers) still have some strike capability."



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